Influence of economic factors in offer coffee of São Paulo State

Adriano Ferreira de Moraes, Adriana Ferreira de Moraes-Oliveira, Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido, José Reinaldo Silva Cabral Moraes, Silvia Martins de Moraes

Abstract


Coffee is one of the key agricultural commodities for the Brazilian economy and few studies have evaluated the influence of economic variables in the coffee supply. The objective was to evaluate the influence that economic variables promote the variation of the arabica coffee, offering on the São Paulo State Northeast. Coffee supply data and econometric variables were used in the 2000-2015 period. The variables were the total rural credit used, rural credit of agriculture, harvested coffee area, the value added in agriculture, the agriculture’s share in total value added, the coffee production value and value added tax. In modeling the coffee supply was the dependent variable and the economic variables were the independent variables,
using multiple linear regression (MLR). The model developed to estimate coffee supply according to the economic variables showed a high significance (p <0.05). The evolution of coffee supply is significantly sensitive to changes in economic factors. The economic variables with the greatest influence on the coffee supply variation are the coffee harvested area and the coffee production value.


Keywords


Modeling; rural credit; econometric; Coffea arabica

References


AMARASINGHE, U. A.; HOANH, C. T.; D’HAEZE, D.; HUNG, T. Q. 2015. Toward sustainable coffee production in Vietnam: More coffee with less water. Agricultural Systems. v.136, p.96–105, 2015.

AMARO, G. Análise econométrica da oferta e da demanda de banana no Estado de Roraima no período de 1995 a 2007. Comunicado Técnico (CPAF-RR), 2010.

ANDRADE, F. T.; CASTRO JUNIOR, L. G.; COSTA, C. H. G. Avaliação da cafeicultura pela abordagem do custeio variável em propriedades nas principais regiões produtoras do brasil. Organizações Rurais & Agroindustriais, Lavras, v.14, n. 3, p. 356-366, 2012.

APARECIDO, L. E. O.; ROLIM, G. S.; SOUZA, P. S. Sensitivity of newly transplanted coffee plants to climatic conditions at altitudes of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Australian Journal of Crop Science, Queensland, v. 9, n. 2, p. 160-167, 2015.

APARECIDO, L. E. O.; ROLIM, G. S.; LAMPARELLI, R. A. C.; SOUZA, P. S. SANTOS, E. R. Agrometeorological Models for Forecasting Coffee Yield. Agronomy Journal, v.108 , n.6, 2 016.

BACCHI, M. R. P.; CALDARELLI, C. E. Impactos socioeconômicos da expansão do setor sucroenergético no Estado de São Paulo, entre o período de 2005 e 2009. Nova economia. v.25, n.1. 2015.

BARBOSA, J. N.; BOREM, F. M.; CIRILLO, M. A.; MALTA, M. R.; ALVARENGA, A. A. Coffee quality and its interactions with environmental factors in Minas Gerais, Brazil. Journal of Agricultural Science, Alberta, v. 4, n. 5, p. 181-190, 2012.

BARICELO, L. G.; BACHA, C. J. C. Oferta e demanda de máquinas agrícolas no brasil. Revista de Política Agrícola, v.22, n.4, 2013.

BARROS, G. S. C.; SPOLADOR, H. F. S.; BACCHI, M. R. P. Supply and Demand Schocks and the Growth of the Bazilian Agriculture. Austrália. International Association of Agricultural Economists Conference, 2006.

BATISTA, L. A.; GUIMARAES, R. J.; PEREIRA, F. J.; CARVALHO, G. R. CASTRO, E. M. Anatomia foliar e potencial hídrico na tolerância de cultivares de café ao estresse hídrico. Revista Ciência Agronômica, v.41, n.3, p.475-481, 2010.

CHIPANSHI, A.; ZHANG, Y.; KOUADIO, L.; NEWLANDS, N.; DAVIDSON, A.; HILL, H.; WARREN, R.; QIAN, B.; DANESHFAR, B.; BEDARD, F.; REICHERT, G. Evaluation of the Integrated Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster (ICCYF) model for in-season prediction of crop yield across the Canadian agricultural landscape. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. v.206, p.137–150. 2015.

GOURANGA, K; ASHWANI, K. Forecasting rainfed rice yield with biomass of early phenophases, peak intercepted PAR and ground based remotely sensed vegetation indices. Journal of Agrometeorology. v.16, p.94-103. 2014.

GUJARATI, D.N.; PORTER, D.C. Econometria básica. Porto Alegre, AMGH Editora Ltda, 2011.

KITZBERGER, C.S.G.; SCHOLZ, M.B.S.; PEREIRA, L.F.P.; VIEIRA, L.G.E.; SERA, T.; SILVA, J.B.G.D.; BENASSI, M.T. Diterpenes in green and roasted coffee of Coffea arabica cultivars growing in the same edapho-climatic conditions. J Food Compos Anal. v.30, p.52–57, 2013.

MANKIW, G. N. Introdução à Economia.1. ed., 3. reimpr. Thomson Learning: São Paulo, 2007.

PINDYCK, R. S.; RUBINFELD, D. L. Microeconomia. São Paulo: Makron Books, 1994.

PINTO, V.M.; REICHARDT, K.; DAM, J.V.; LIER, Q.J.V.; BRUNO, I.P.; DURIGON, A.; DOURADO-NETO, D.; BORTOLOTTO, R.P. Deep drainage modeling for a fertigated coffee plantation in the Brazilian savanna. Agricultural Water Management.v.148, p.130–140, 2015.

SANTOS, V. E.; GOMES, M. T. M.; GOMES, M. F. M. Estimativa da elasticidade-renda do consumo de café na região sudeste do brasil. Revista de Economia e Agronegócio, v.3, n.4, 2015.

WHITE, H. A heteroskedasticity-consistentcovariancematrixand a directtest for heteroskedasticity. Econometrica, v.48, p.817–838, 1980.

ZELBER-SAGI, S.; SALOMONE, F.; WEBB, M.; LOTAN, R.; YESHUA, H.; HALPERN, Z.; SHIBOLET, O. Coffee consumption and nonalcoholic fatty liver onset: a prospective study in the general population. Translational Research. v.165, p.428-436, 2015.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.25186/cs.v12i3.1338

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.